From Scarcity to Excess: India’s Obesity Crisis
Over the past year, while we’ve been active in investing, we’ve been relatively quiet in sharing our thoughts and reflections publicly. That doesn’t mean we haven’t been deeply engaged in observing and analyzing the themes and trends shaping the world around us. As we kick off the new year, we’re not aiming for lofty resolutions, but we do hope to start putting pen to paper more regularly to share some of the ideas and patterns we’ve been tracking.
This week, we’re diving into a topic that feels both urgent and ripe for discussion: health and obesity in India. It’s a complex issue, deeply tied to cultural shifts, economic factors, and the growing influence of global food trends. We’ll unpack how these forces are shaping India’s relationship with food, health, and fitness—and where we see opportunities for innovation and change. We hope to share similar short snippets on an on-going basis this year.
If you are a child of the ‘90s and grew up in India in the early post-liberalization years, perhaps some of your memories of those years will be centered around watching the glut of cable TV and American culture being beamed directly into your living rooms in those years of true American hegemony. It was a window into a world of plenty—plenty of food, and all kinds of food, for one.
As India opened up—including to McDonald’s and Pizza Hut—there was (as there always is) a debate about what this would mean for our eating habits and whether the country would go down the road of forming a taste for the kind of food that had made America, basically, an obese country. It seemed hard to fathom at the time that this could happen. Our food was not dominated by highly processed items high in fat, salts, and sugar. But more critically, we were a poor country (we still are of course, but the overlay was more widespread then), with a reality and deep memory of scarcity, if not famine. The idea that being able to afford eating out or eating junk as anything more than an indulgence seemed far-fetched. It was hard to imagine that a country of malnourishment, where people were mostly thin, would ever become a country where people were mostly fat.
And yet, here we are. Travel to India today and it’s hard not to notice that, on the whole, we are now a fat country! Data from the past decade shows that India’s obesity rate has almost tripled, with more than 100 million people classified as obese. An estimated 14.4 million Indian children are now obese, owing to sedentary lifestyles, poor diets, and increasing consumption of processed foods.
The culprits are familiar: fast food chains, American-style malls, and advertising strategies targeting young minds. The rise of ultra-processed foods—laden with sugars, salts, and unhealthy fats—has infiltrated diets across socio-economic classes. The “thrifty gene,” advantageous in times of scarcity, is now a liability, making South Asians genetically predisposed to obesity and related health issues like diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease.
This trend is not just one that driven by consumers. The food and beverage industry is facing strong regulatory scrutiny and greater public health awareness. This has hampered their ability to sell indiscriminately to Western markets, and in a search for growth and profitability countries like India are attractive. Populous, still under penetrated and poorly regulated — it’s a free for all. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this trajectory is an economic and social disaster waiting to unfold fully. The healthcare costs that such an unhealthy population are going to be tremendously high.
But while the parallels with the U.S. are stark, we believe they also point to the potential for change—and opportunity. America, after hitting peak obesity, has seen a growing health-conscious movement, driven by fitness regimens, calorie-counting, and better nutritional awareness. This wave has spawned multi-billion-dollar industries ranging from organic food and fitness apps to health-tech solutions. Say what you will about Robert Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stand, but the MAHA movement is politically important and has been an issue that has resonated with many voters, particularly affluent moms who are worried about the ingredients that are in the foods their kids eat.
We believe a greater awareness of health and ingredients on the part of consumers is a natural trajectory for the Indian consumers, especially those who are urban and affluent. The shift will likely start with the top 1%—those with the purchasing power and awareness to invest in health. We are already seeing this in the popularity of influencers like Food Pharmer, new-age brand catering to a more health conscious population (Epigamia, etc.) and older brands trying to catch-up (Amul).
In line with this thinking we believe there is a huge opportunity for companies building to capitalize on these tailwinds across a variety of areas. Just some example categories include:
Health-focused consumer brands: E.g., Organic and locally-sourced snacks, low sugar beverages and condiments, plant-based foods
Fitness and Lifestyle: E.g., Premium gym chains, fitness studios and services
Preventative Healthcare: Apps and wearables focusing on fitness, nutrition, and monitoring chronic conditions like diabetes.
In each of these areas, we already see exciting companies that are building for identified pain points and un/underserved needs. We are excited to see how this space will develop. If you are working on these problem spaces and themes, we’d love to learn and chat!!
Brilliantly summed up!